Microsoft’s decision to release Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 on Game Pass at launch has reportedly resulted in an estimated US$300 million in lost sales, according to a Bloomberg report. The 2024 blockbuster, which debuted on both console and PC through the subscription service, was the first title in the popular military shooter franchise to be available to subscribers on its release day.
The report sheds new light on the financial implications of Microsoft’s Game Pass strategy. It provides context for the company’s recent decision to raise the price of Game Pass Ultimate by 50%.
A costly experiment in subscription gaming
Since its inception, Xbox Game Pass has built its reputation on the promise of day-one releases for major first-party titles, including Forza Horizon 5 and Halo Infinite. However, Bloomberg noted that the internal debate over whether to launch Black Ops 6 on the platform was particularly intense, with concerns that such a move could reduce traditional game sales.
This internal friction is not new. It was previously reported that Microsoft executives faced similar discussions before the release of Call of Duty: Black Ops 6, weighing the value of growing subscription numbers against the potential loss in direct purchases.
Former Activision head Bobby Kotick voiced scepticism about this business model during the 2023 U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC) trial regarding Microsoft’s acquisition of Activision Blizzard. “I have a general aversion to the idea of multi-game subscription services,” Kotick said. “Maybe part of it is being in Los Angeles and having large, big media companies move their content to these subscription streaming services, and the business results have suffered.”
Despite Kotick’s reservations, Microsoft pursued the strategy following the acquisition, integrating the Call of Duty franchise into Game Pass.
Subscription boost, but sales dominated by PlayStation
According to market research firm Circana, Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 achieved sales 23% higher than 2023’s Modern Warfare 3 during the same release window. However, 82% of those sales reportedly came from PlayStation, indicating that most players still preferred purchasing the game outright rather than through Microsoft’s ecosystem.
Meanwhile, subscription gaming services experienced a 16% year-over-year increase in usage following the launch of Black Ops 6. Analysts estimate that to offset the reported US$300 million in lost revenue, Microsoft would have needed roughly 15 million Game Pass Ultimate subscribers for one month, or 1.25 million subscribers sustained across a full year. For cheaper Game Pass PC subscriptions, the numbers need to be significantly higher to achieve the same financial balance.
Microsoft’s recent Game Pass price increases alter this equation. Under the new pricing, even if the upcoming Black Ops 7 experiences a similar sales drop, the company would only need about 10 million new Ultimate subscribers in November—or 834,000 sustained for a year—to recover equivalent losses.
Shifting strategy and the future of Game Pass
The latest overhaul of Game Pass signals Microsoft’s gradual retreat from its original day-one release strategy. Game Pass Premium, which now costs as much as the previous Ultimate tier, will only include first-party Xbox games one year after launch, with no guarantee that future Call of Duty titles will be added.
Bloomberg also reported that Microsoft is testing a new “free” ad-supported cloud gaming tier and may continue to raise prices across its subscription plans if core players remain loyal.
Microsoft’s Chief Financial Officer, Amy Hood, has reportedly urged the Xbox division to “find other ways to increase profit.” This shift suggests the company’s focus is moving away from expanding its market share and toward maximising revenue from its existing subscriber base.
