TikTok’s future in the United States appears more promising following Donald Trump’s re-election. Industry insiders note a surge in optimism among the app’s employees and its Chinese owner, ByteDance. This renewed hope comes alongside a sharp rise in ByteDance’s valuation, estimated at around US$300 billion.
Experts believe Trump’s victory has changed the narrative for the embattled short-video platform, which has faced threats of a ban over national security concerns. According to Cameron Johnson, a senior partner at consultancy TidalWave Solutions with decades of business experience in China, the platform’s outlook is “a lot brighter than it was before.”
A complex relationship with TikTok
During his first term, Trump sought to ban TikTok, citing fears over data security and its ties to China. However, his campaign took an unexpected turn in June when he joined the platform, amassing over 14 million followers. In September, he urged voters to support him, promising his leadership would “save TikTok.”
This contradiction reflects a nuanced relationship between Trump and TikTok. Johnson notes that TikTok may be used as leverage in future negotiations with China, suggesting the platform’s fate could hinge on broader political deals. While the new administration might demand concessions, such as localising data management, outright banning TikTok seems less likely, especially considering its potential role in Trump’s re-election strategy.
Reports indicate that TikTok shifted its content moderation rules a year before the election, aligning more closely with conservative viewpoints. Some observers speculate this may have indirectly bolstered Trump’s appeal among certain voter groups.
ByteDance valuation soars
The brighter prospects for TikTok have a ripple effect on ByteDance’s valuation. According to The Wall Street Journal, ByteDance’s valuation rose from US$268 billion in December 2023 to US$300 billion during a recent share buy-back for institutional investors. While this remains below its 2021 peak of US$400 billion, the increase reflects growing confidence in the company’s stability and future potential.
Despite these positive developments, TikTok and ByteDance still face significant challenges. A law signed by President Joe Biden in April requires TikTok to sell its US operations by January 2025 or risk being banned from app stores. TikTok has challenged this law in court, with a federal appellate panel currently reviewing the case. A ruling is expected by December to allow time for a potential Supreme Court appeal.
TikTok remains steadfast in its position, asserting it will not, and cannot, be sold. When Trump issued a similar order in 2020, China amended its export control laws to include technologies crucial to TikTok’s operation, effectively blocking divestiture.
Relief among TikTok employees
For many TikTok employees, Trump’s win has brought relief. One unnamed staff member described the mood as cautiously optimistic, though they acknowledged that the ongoing legal battle could still shape the platform’s future.
While Trump’s administration has not yet outlined specific plans for TikTok, spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt assured that the president intends to honour his campaign promises. TikTok’s fate is a delicate balance between political strategy, legal battles, and ongoing negotiations.